Blueprint 2025: Jaydon’s OROY Path
- Newbear Lesniewski
- May 28, 2025
- 9 min read
Little surprise arrived on the 2024 NFL award circuit when Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was named Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year—the former No. 2 pick took home all but one 1st place vote.
4,459 total yards. 31 combined touchdowns. 12 regular-season victories and a trip to the NFC Conference Championship game is about as good as it gets for any QB1 in Year 1.
Added bonus: the scintillating-yet-sinewy superstar actually learned how to sidestep most of the bad sacks and bone-crushing hits that had draft pundits concerned about his often-reckless sense of self—Sunday meme factory servers were overheating even after his gravity-defying, Heisman-winning college career.
The Dallas Cowboys have a potential home run homophone who may not even need to start in order to take home enough OROY votes to steal the show at NFL Honors 2025.
(USA Today SMG Image)
Jaydon Blue, the 149th pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, was not RB1 for the Texas Longhorns. Tre Wisner battled his way to the top of a Texas timeshare, eclipsing 1,000 yards on the ground while hauling in 44 catches (and 270 touches) as UT went deep in the CFP.
Blue was the burnt orange backbreaker, streaking to almost a yard better per carry than Wisner and consistently delivering his biggest plays on the game’s biggest stage—Blue’s pair of receiving touchdowns twice brought the Cotton Bowl scoreboard all-even before the Ohio State Buckeyes ultimately closed the door on Texas for 2024.
Both Blue and Wisner ceded control of the Texas backfield to Jonathan Brooks in 2023, a 2nd Round pick of the Carolina Panthers despite tearing his ACL on his way out of Austin. Brooks had gained favorable comparisons to Bijan Robinson—2023’s No. 8 overall selection after an All-American 2022 at Texas—who appears poised to push the league’s best backs for All-Pro consideration coming of last year’s 1,887 total yards and 15 touchdowns on the way to the Pro Bowl.
To truly understand the back-against-the-wall gauntlet Blue had to literally run through in college, consider the case of CJ Baxter. When Brooks went down in 2023, it was Baxter who finished second in the star-studded running back room in carries, yards, touchdowns, and receptions. Then a preseason pop changed everything, leaving Baxter to pen this tribute to The Blueprint for The Players’ Tribune on his road back to the gridiron.
“…what I did in high school didn’t matter anymore. Everybody at Texas balled out in high school—that’s why they’re a Longhorn. For a lot of players, it means sitting on the bench for the first time in your life. Lesson 1: Don’t complain and poison the locker room. Earn your spot on the depth chart. That ego hit can ultimately be too much for some guys. And if it is? There’s the door.”
That excerpt echoes all the way to Arlington for Jaydon Blue.
His nickname?
DA BLUEPRINT.
And there’s a whole culture behind his career arc—one that comes with almost no Saturday tread on the tires heading into a rookie campaign that could shape up in similar fashion to a pair of all-time greats who won OROY 20 years apart.
Warrick Dunn arrived in Tampa Bay in 1997, 180 pounds soaking wet draped over a taut 5’8” having reportedly run between 4.26 and 4.38 (the same NFL Combine 40 time that Blue posted last February at 5’9” 196).
DUNN 1997 BREAKDOWN
224 carries 978 yards 4.4 average 4 touchdowns
56 targets 39 receptions 69.6 catch rate 462 yards 11.8 average 3 touchdowns
All while letting All-Pro fullback Mike Alstott play battering ram (176/665/7) with Trent Dilfer at quarterback and the likes of Reidel Anthony, Karl Williams, and Horace Copeland barely combining for 100 total receptions out wide.
Alvin Kamara arrived in New Orleans in 2017, perhaps more NFL-ready at 5’10” 214. He also ran a 4.56 40. Although Blue’s vertical and broad jump failed to match Kamara’s 39.5 and 10’11”, respectively, the former improved that 4.38 Combine run to 4.25 and 4.28 at his Texas Pro Day in March.
KAMARA 2017 BREAKDOWN
120 carries 728 yards 6.1 average 8 touchdowns
100 targets 81 receptions 81.0 catch rate 826 yards 10.2 average 5 touchdowns
All while letting Pro Bowl backfield partner Mark Ingram take bellcow back status (230/1124/12). Ingram also delivered a 58/416/7.2 receiving line without additional scoring. And yes, that enviable Saints attack was driven by Drew Brees with Mike Thomas in the CeeDee Lamb role, but Tedd Ginn, Jr., played George Pickens and if you can name WR3 then I’ve got some Mardi Gras beads at the ready. TE1 Coby Fleener went for 22/295/2—numbers Luke Schoonmaker matched behind Jake Ferguson in 2024.
Of note: Kamara also added a 106-yard kickoff return touchdown as part of his 31.5 average on the way to 2nd Team All-Pro RB status opposite Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt—another rookie who finished second to Kamara in OROY voting despite more than doubling his rushing attempts (272-120) while producing a 53/455/3 receiving line with a gaudy 84.1 catch rate.
DALLAS COWBOYS 2025 DEPTH CHART FACTORS
With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens dictating matchups, you would also be correct to assume that Jake Ferguson returns to looking more like the league’s next great tight end as he seeks to put a 2024 that had his production looking more like late-career Jason Witten in the rearview.
Javonte Williams—finally feeling like himself three years removed from a devastating knee injury that derailed his promising career after a 900-yard, 40-reception (81.1 catch rate) 2021 debut—enters training camp as RB1. Phil Mafah has designs on being the “toughest dude” out there on the field. And Miles Sanders still owns a 4.7 career rushing average despite two lost years in dystopian Carolina.
Dak Prescott is going to steal a touchdown or two on a QB sneak—or even, gasp, a vintage Elway QB draw.
KaVontae Turpin and Lamb are going to keep flying and jetting on sweeps.
Hell, if reports out of Cowboys camp are to be believed, then we may even see Hunter Luepke get more than some goal line belly.
And yet, all those redzone vultures mean one thing:
A high likelihood that the bulk of Jaydon Blue’s touchdowns arrive of the did-you-just-see-that variety.
A QUICK LOOK AT MODERN RB OROY HISTORY
Look, there’s a laundry list of war daddy types and names you’re sure to recognize going back to Cowboys Nation Mt. Rushmore Emmitt Smith taking home OROY in 1990. (Salute if you knew that Leonard Russell followed Catch-22 in 1991.)
There’s one-name greats like Bettis and Faulk.
A human battleship with two first names: Eddie George.
The incomparable Adrian Peterson, better known as AD than AP—which stood for All-Day.
All-time what-ifs like Todd Gurley, who added an OPOY to his OROY in Year 3 and remains third in the league in rushing touchdowns since 2015—despite not suiting up since 2020.
There’s a guy like Mike Anderson who went Marines-JUCO-Utah-6th Round-Record Books as a 27-year-old rookie serving as the Shanahan System bridge between Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis.
There’s Eddie Lacy who went from gobbling up yards and touchdowns to eating himself out of the league.
Stoics like Curtis Martin.
Gold-teeth-to-gold-jacket Edgerrin James.
A Cadillac (Williams) and an A-Train (Anthony Thomas).
Saquon Barkley was the last running back to take home OROY in 2018—as complete of a rookie season with the New York Football Giants as we have arguably ever seen, including an NFL-best 2,028 yards from scrimmage and 91 receptions.
2025 NFL ROOKIE RIVALS
Vegas odds and just about every betting site makes Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty the heavy favorite. But even if he earns Chip Kelly’s trust and gets that Michael Myers pre-snap stance back, what if the Sunday version of Jeanty’s rookie numbers look more like the back who got put in a Penn State straightjacket?
No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward will do his best Jayden Daniels impersonation and QBs have taken home four of the last six OROY awards. That math dips to five out of nine going back to 2016 with Dak, and before we dig into the litany of liabilities that litter the Tennessee Titans roster, let’s not forget that Ward has a little of that Will Levis I’m-just-more-special sauce that can plague rookie signal callers as they get up to Sunday speed. Remember the old joke used to be that even Peyton spelled Manning M-A-N-N-INT—he tossed 28 picks, went 3-13, and watched Randy Moss soar to 1998 OROY.
Everything Travis Hunter brings to the table opposite 2024 rookie sensation Brian Thomas, Jr., could be mitigated by Trevor Lawrence simply not being who everyone thought he was (nay, a more athletic, stronger-armed, Fabio-coiffed Manning, predestined-Hall-of-Fame model) or the injury report that would have Nick Mullens spinning through the QB2 revolving door for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Hunter’s odds—currently about the same money—may actually be better to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, pending usage.
Omarion Hampton may unseat Najee Harris for the Los Angeles Chargers, but with designs on a deep playoff run won’t Jim Harbaugh make sure both backs eat? The Denver Broncos let Javonte Williams walk all the way to Dallas, creating high-volume opportunity where RJ Harvey runs away with a camp “battle” that leaves Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin scrounging for table scraps. But are Evan Engram and 2025 3rd Rounder Pat Bryant enough to bolster Bo Nix with a year of tape to evaluate? Cam Skattebo is sawed-off Jeremy Shockey (who earned a 2002 AP1 nod and finished second to Portis for OROY) under the New York spotlight. But who’s his quarterback?
Tyler Warren may seamlessly shift into a Travis Kelce facsimile for the Indianapolis Colts, down to the gadget plays that goose fantasy numbers in the redzone. Since 1967, 33 running backs have won OROY—but nary a tight end. (See ya, Colston Loveland; and really, apologies, Cole Kmet.)
Tet McMillian has you betting on Bryce Young or The Red Rifle. He may destroy fantasy leagues in any given week; the Carolina Panthers real-life regular season may implode at any time. And that’s before noting that last year’s No. 1 pick, Xaiver Legette, failed to reach 50 catches or 500 yards, Hunter Renfrow is fighting back from an autoimmune disease that cost him all of 2024 as he seeks to mirror the seemingly ageless, yet oft-injured Adam Thielen for reps, and Jimmy Horn, Jr., has been arrow-up, trending as a 6th round steal.
Emeka Egbuka may have been the most pro-ready wide receiver in the draft. Father Time may be undefeated, but there’s still only one ball to go around for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Matthew Golden exists in an even more acute wide receiver room than Egbuka, a Green Bay Packers equal-opportunity offense that reinforces and rewards ball distribution by punishing opposing defenses opposite what they try to take away from week to week.
Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough. Good luck and godspeed.
JAYDON BLUE’S PATH
Dunn nearly doubled Kamara’s OROY carries (224-120), and that helped him out-touch Kamara by more than 60 overall (263-201, not counting KOR) despite Kamara flipping the script as a receiving threat (81-39). They both accounted for similar total yards (1,440-1,554, with Kamara in the lead). Dunn also only produced 7 total touchdowns to Kamara’s 13 (again, not counting KOR).
Just 12-15 touches per game would put Blue on the same Warrick Dunn-Alvin Kamara pace (204-255).
And a look at Blue’s elite collegiate touchdown efficiency is where the Kamara comparison really comes into play. Last year at Texas, just 134 carries produced 8 rushing touchdowns; 42 catches added 6 more scores.
Dunn shared the Florida State Fast Break with guys named Pooh Bear and Rock before slashing through defenses after the real A-Train (Alstott, the collegiate Boilermaker; apologies, Anthony Thomas) softened ‘em up as an NFL Rookie. After transferring from one of the deepest backfields in NCAA history at Alabama, Kamara spent two years prepping at Tennessee opposite a(n understatement) big back (6’5” 230lb. Jalen Hurd) and a run-threat QB (Josh Dobbs) before introducing himself to the league in breathtaking fashion.
Blue’s 4.25 potential and soft hands fit the Dunn-Kamara mold.
And the depth chart in Dallas is set up for someone else to shoulder the early-down and short-yardage loads while Blue’s versatility allows him to imprint on true game script disruption for any down and distance.
While it must be noted that Blue only averaged 11.7 touches per game last year at Texas, six games included double-digit carries (with a high of 25), and he registered eight contests with double-digit total touches.
Further:
If Javonte Williams is having a day on the ground, Blue doesn’t need to tote the rock to hit paydirt. He tallied receiving touchdowns in four games where he was a rushing non-factor throughout 2024 (and five overall), including the pair previously mentioned in the Cotton Bowl.
With Lamb and Pickens streaking, Ferguson posting up and threatening the seam, and just-a-little-crease created anywhere on the field, Blue becomes this team’s Swiss Army Knife™ in 2025.
And if enough of those touches end up in the endzone, then his explosively efficient versatility will be impossible to ignore when it comes time to vote.
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